Short-term Growth Prospects Positive – PIOJ

Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, says growth prospects for the Jamaican economy in the short-term are positive.

Speaking during the PIOJ’s hybrid quarterly press briefing on Tuesday (August 19), Dr. Henry explained that a continuation of the recovery momentum is expected, with all industries projected to record growth.

“For July to September 2025, it is anticipated that the economy will grow within the range of two to three per cent,” Dr. Henry said.

The Director General explained that this performance will be supported by the recovery from the low production base during the corresponding quarter of 2024, when most industries were adversely impacted by Hurricane Beryl.

He said it is anticipated that the Electricity, Water and Waste Management Industry will record strong growth, as it was one of the most affected industries during Hurricane Beryl in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

The Director General shared that ongoing retooling and capacity expansion in the Manufacturing and Accommodation & Food Service Activities industries are also expected to contribute to growth.

“Cement production is expected to record strong growth, consequent on the completion of plant expansion works, while the accommodation sector will benefit from the increased room stock and several summer events which spurred visitor arrivals to the island. Preliminary data on airport arrivals for July 2025 indicate a 16.5 per cent increase in visitors,” Dr. Henry said.

He further shared that the strengthening of domestic demand associated with higher levels of employment, improved business and consumer confidence and the traditional bump in spending during periods of intense election campaigning are expected to result in economic growth.

“Preliminary data on the Mining & Quarrying industry for July 2025 showed that alumina production increased by 18.3 per cent. The performance was largely due to the recovery, as the industry was adversely affected by Hurricane Beryl, which damaged the Port at Rocky Point, causing a temporary halt to production and export activities,” he explained.

For the financial year 2025/26, the PIOJ’s projection is for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth within the range of one to two per cent.

Dr. Henry advised that the main downside risks to the projection are the possibility of adverse weather conditions disrupting productive activities in key industries and weakened external demand due to trade disruptions caused by the implementation of increased tariffs by the United States.

“Despite the challenges that abound, we remain optimistic as we continue to closely monitor and assess these developments,” he said.