PIOJ Reports Estimated 0.1 Per Cent Economic Growth for the April-June 2024 Quarter

Jamaica’s economy expanded by an estimated 0.1 per cent during the April to June 2024 quarter, compared to the corresponding period last year.

Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, presented the preliminary findings during the agency’s quarterly media briefing on Wednesday (September 4), shedding light on the various factors influencing the nation’s economic trajectory.

“The Goods Producing Industry grew by an estimated 0.7 per cent, with improved performances recorded for Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, and Mining and Quarrying. The manufacturing industry was estimated to have recorded a flat performance, and the construction industry recorded its third consecutive quarter of decline,” he stated.

Key determinants impacting the performance included the strengthening of consumer confidence, robust employment levels driving domestic demand, growth in major trading partners’ economies, challenges stemming from the Petrojam refinery fire in March 2024, and a decline in Business Confidence affecting investment sentiments.

“The lower output of petroleum products resulted from reduced operating days at the Petrojam refinery, due to its closure for 38 days relative to 33 days in the corresponding quarter of 2023. There was no production in April 2024 due to a fire on March 5 that disrupted the refinery operations,” the Director General stated.

Looking ahead to the July-September 2024 quarter, Dr. Henry said it is anticipated that Jamaica’s economy will contract within a range of -0.1 to -1.0 per cent.

“Short-term prospects for the overall economy are negative, largely associated with the adverse impact of Hurricane Beryl on production activities. A downturn in output levels is projected for some industries, including the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Mining and Quarrying; Electricity and Water Supply, as well as the Hotels and Restaurants industries,” he shared.

For the full fiscal year 2024/25, the PIOJ projects a GDP change between -1.0 to 1.0 per cent, with uncertainty prevailing, contingent on the pace of recovery from the hurricane’s impact.

Dr. Henry acknowledged the intricacies of the current economic landscape marked by both internal and external challenges, while underscoring the importance of resilience and adaptability in navigating these fluctuations.

The PIOJ remains committed to providing informed assessments and strategic insights to support Jamaica’s economic resilience and sustainable development.