Economists Hail Jamaica’s Sustained Debt Reduction as “Exceptional”
By: , April 3, 2024
Photo: Derrick Scott
Jamaica’s Ambassador to the United States, Her Excellency Audrey Marks, shares a moment with (from left) Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor, Emil Vermer; Professor, Harvard Business School, Laura Alfaro; University of Colorado Professor, Barry Eichengreen; Jamaican economist at Stanford University, Professor Peter Blair Henry; and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economist, Serkan Arslanalp. Occasion was the Brookings Institute spring papers on economic activity, featuring Jamaica, in Washington DC on March 28.The Full Story
Jamaica is being hailed as “exceptional” for achieving sustained reduction in the public-debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio (GDP) despite global financial crises, pandemics, and other emergencies.
In a paper titled ‘Sustained Debt Reduction: The Jamaica Exception’, authors Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen and Professor Peter Blair Henry, noted that the sharp, sustained reductions in public debt are outstanding “because public-debt-to-GDP ratios have been trending up in advanced countries, emerging markets, and developing countries alike”.
The paper was presented at the Brookings Institute in Washington on Thursday (March 28).
“Governments have borrowed in response to financial crises, pandemics, wars and other emergencies, resulting in higher debt ratios. But only in rare instances have they succeeded in bringing those higher debt ratios back down once the emergency passed,” the paper pointed out.
In the case of Jamaica, the Government was able to cut its debt ratio in half from 144 per cent of GDP at the end of 2012 to 72 per cent in 2023.
The economists said the achievement was despite vulnerability to hurricanes, floods, droughts, earthquakes, storm surges and landslides, noting that Jamaica is ranked as the third most disaster-prone country in the world according to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery.
“It did so despite a COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted tourism and mandated exceptional increases in public spending. Yet, despite this exogenously prompted deviation from plan, the IMF’s baseline projection, in its 2023 Article IV report, forecasts a further fall in debt-GDP to less than 60 per cent over the next four years,” the paper said further.
The paper highlighted the fact that the Fiscal Responsibility Framework, introduced in 2010, required the Minister of Finance to take measures to reduce, by the end of fiscal year 2016, the fiscal balance to nil, the debt-GDP ratio to 100 per cent, and public-sector wages as a share of GDP to nine per cent.
“The framework was augmented in 2014 to require the Minister, by the end of fiscal year 2018, to specify a multi-year fiscal trajectory to bring the debt-GDP ratio down to 60 per cent by 2026. The framework included an escape clause to be invoked in the event of large shocks.
“This prevented the rule from being so rigid, in a volatile macroeconomic environment, as to lack credibility. At the same time, it included clear criteria and independent oversight to prevent opportunistic use,” the paper said.
The paper further pointed to the consensus building exercise entered into by the Government, which was key to the achievement.
“In 2013, a series of ongoing discussions in the National Partnership Council, a social dialogue collaboration involving the Government, parliamentary Opposition, and social partners, culminated in the Partnership for Jamaica Agreement on consensus policies in four areas, first of which was fiscal reform and consolidation,” the paper noted.
“The Partnership for Jamaica Agreement fostered a common belief that the burden of fiscal adjustment would be widely and fairly shared. It supported the creation and ensured broad national acceptance of the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) to monitor and publicly report on fiscal policies and outcomes, and to provide independent verification that all parties kept to the terms of their agreement,” the research said.
“By creating a sense of fair burden sharing, Jamaica’s organised process of consultation thus sustained public support for the operation of the country’s fiscal rules, culminating in March 2023 with the establishment of a permanent, independent Fiscal Commission,” the economists declared.
“Jamaica managed its financial system well in this period. It adeptly managed the term structure of the debt, by way of a well-designed fiscal rule, and a partnership agreement creating confidence that the burden of adjustment would be widely and fairly shared.
The fiscal responsibility and the partnership agreement were key, as neither element would have worked to achieve sustained debt reduction in the absence of the other.
Both were needed the authors declared.