PIOJ Projects Growth Rebound for First Quarter of 2025

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) anticipates the country’s return to economic growth in the January to March 2025 quarter, with projections within the range of 0.1 to one per cent.

Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, made the disclosure during the PIOJ’s quarterly media briefing at the Institute’s offices in New Kingston on Wednesday (February 19).

This positive outlook is based on expectations of continued growth in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners, higher domestic demand driven by increased employment, and a recovery in industries impacted by hydrological events.

Dr. Henry noted that the October to December 2024 quarter presented significant challenges for the domestic economy, among these, adverse weather conditions and disruptions in air travel, “[which] created a difficult environment for several key sectors”.

He said real value added is estimated to have contracted by 0.9 per cent for calendar year 2024, reflecting lower out-turns for the goods producing and services industries.

Despite the challenges, high levels of employment, as well as increased business and consumer confidence, tempered the contraction.

“While we acknowledge the challenges of the past year, we are optimistic about the prospects for the Jamaican economy in the short to medium term. We anticipate growth in the coming quarters, driven by both domestic and external factors,” Dr. Henry stated.

Preliminary data for January 2025 indicate that total bauxite production grew by 3.8 per cent. Additionally, the finance and insurance services industry recorded growth of one per cent.

There are, however, several potential downside risks. These include planned downtime in major industries, slow implementation of capital projects, and weaker-than-projected growth in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners.