Positive Signs For Projected Growth – PIOJ

Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, says there are “positive signs” regarding the PIOJ’s projection for the country to record economic growth of between four to six per cent during the 2021/22 fiscal year.

Speaking during the PIOJ’s digital quarterly briefing on Tuesday (February 23), Dr. Henry said this is in the wake of the projected 10.2 per cent 2020 calendar year and 10.5 to 12.5 per cent fiscal year contractions.

Among the positive indicators, Dr. Henry said, are measures implemented locally to manage the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), which have allowed for the gradual resumption of economic activities; the aggressive global COVID-19 vaccination programme under way, which is slated to commence locally during the last quarter of the 2020/21 fiscal year; and cycling out of the impact of the closure of JISCo Alpart alumina refinery since September 2019.

The Director General also highlighted the anticipated strong growth in industries associated with travel and tourism, noting that “the rollout of vaccination programmes globally and locally is expected to facilitate growth in the hotels and restaurants, other services [particularly in the areas of entertainment and attractions], and transport, storage and communications industries”.

“The economy is expected to grow during 2021/22 as the demand and output for goods and services increases over fiscal year 2020/21 levels. An increase in the number of tourist arrivals, as well as a gradual return to normalcy, given the sharp decline in economic activity in FY2020/21, will be the main drivers of the expansion,” he said.

Dr. Henry further indicated that Jamaica is expected to return to pre-COVID-19 output levels, recorded in 2018/19, by fiscal year 2023/24.

He remained optimistic that the six per cent mining and quarrying growth out-turn recorded for October to December 2020 “is expected to continue throughout the upcoming fiscal year, given that prevailing demand conditions remain or improve”.

Dr. Henry said the economy is projected to have contracted by 9.4 per cent over the October to December 2020 quarter, resulting in an estimated 2020 calendar year decline of 10.2 per cent.

“This was the first year of contraction, following seven consecutive years of growth. The downturn in economic activity was attributed to the global spread of COVID-19 and the associated measures implemented to mitigate its transmission,” he indicated.

Dr. Henry said growth for the January to March 2021 quarter is projected to contract within the range of seven to nine per cent, with the overall 2020/21 fiscal year out-turn expected to decline by between 10.5 and 12.5 percentage points.

“Jamaica is facing unprecedented and very challenging times in all spheres of life, brought about by the global pandemic currently impacting us. Overcoming these challenges… will demand the efforts of all of us. Let me, therefore, take this opportunity to encourage us all, stakeholders in Jamaica, to maintain the dialogue and continue the collaboration,” he emphasised.