Positive Growth Outlook for the Short to Medium Term
By: , May 22, 2025
Photo: JIS File
Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry.The Full Story
He said it is projected that the economy will grow within the range of 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent in April to June 2025, relative to April to June 2024.
The Director General explained that this performance will be supported by increased output in agriculture, due to the continued strengthening in domestic crop production and a reduction in the drag on growth from the export crop component as longer-term crops begin to recover.
Hotels & Restaurants are also expected to contribute to growth, largely due to the anticipated increase in stopover arrivals associated with events such as spring break, Easter holidays and Jamaica carnival.
Construction will also be a growth driver due to the impact of the rollout of infrastructure projects at the start of the new fiscal year to include roadworks and residential and non-residential construction activities, Dr. Henry said.
He noted that growth will also be supported by increased domestic demand due to relatively high levels of employment and increased consumer confidence.
“Preliminary data for the quarter indicate some positive movements in support of this projection. Preliminary data on airport arrivals for April 2025 indicate an increase of 5.3 per cent relative to April 2024. However, for the Mining & Quarrying industry, data for April indicates that the heavier weighted alumina production contracted by 12.3 per cent, while crude bauxite production increased by 3.9 per cent,” he explained.
The projection for Fiscal Year 2025/26 is for growth within the range of one to two per cent.
The Director General said that all industries are forecast to record growth, as the recovery from the weather-related shocks in 2024 will become more pronounced in the latter half of calendar year 2025.
He advised that the downside risks to this positive outlook include unplanned factory downtime associated with aged production plants, particularly in the Mining & Quarrying and Manufacturing industries, weather-related shocks associated with the start of the hurricane season, and lower-than-anticipated external demand for Jamaican goods.