PIOJ Projects Three to Five Years for Full Recovery

Director General at the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, is projecting that it will take between three and five years for Jamaica’s economy to return to pre-Hurricane Melissa output levels.

“There was significant loss of productive assets, which implies that an extended time is required to rebuild. Given that recovery from COVID-19 took two years with productive assets in place, we anticipate that at least twice the time would be required for full recovery from Hurricane Melissa,” he said.

Dr. Henry was providing an update on Jamaica’s economy during a hybrid press briefing, held at the PIOJ’s office in Kingston, on Tuesday (November 25).

He pointed out that the economy will be faced with significant challenges arising from the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Melissa.

The Director General noted that the frequency of weather-related and other shocks has hindered the country’s ability to realise sustained economic growth.

“This highlights the need to re-examine and prioritise plans and initiatives to address the challenges that have hindered the country’s ability to foster more robust and sustained growth. This would involve strategies to build resilience on all fronts, to include the economic, social, and environmental,” he argued.

Dr. Henry said the depth and duration of this current shock is contingent on the timing of the implementation of major initiatives to support the humanitarian and economic recovery activities.

“The use of social protection initiatives is critical in mitigating the impacts of shocks on the most vulnerable. As demonstrated in 2024, when the impact of adverse shocks on the vulnerable was tempered by targeted social protection measures, a similar approach is now being implemented to ensure that efforts are placed on identifying and releasing appropriate assistance to the most vulnerable,” the Director General outlined.

He emphasised that Hurricane Melissa provides an opportunity for Jamaica to rebuild stronger, more resilient, and better prepared for future challenges.

“Achieving this will require a whole of society approach, grounded in collaboration and driven by transformative and practical solutions to mitigate future risks,” Dr. Henry said.

“The response, both locally and from regional and international persons, has been overwhelmingly positive, and for that we are grateful, but we want to encourage us to continue to sustain those efforts of relief,” the Director General urged.

He emphasised that the recovery process will be “a marathon”, requiring stamina, strength and resilience.

A damage and loss assessment report on the full impact of Hurricane Melissa, led by the PIOJ with support from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UN ECLAC) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), is under way and is anticipated be completed in late December.

However, an interim Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) assessment undertaken by the World Bank has indicated that Jamaica sustained US$8.8 billion in physical damage from the hurricane.