Growth of 5.1 Per Cent Last Year

Jamaica’s economy is estimated to have grown by 5.1 per cent between January and December 2022.

This was disclosed by Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Wayne Henry, who said the out-turn was spurred by an estimated six per cent growth for the Services industry and 2.1 per cent for the Goods Producing Industry.

“All [sub] industries are estimated to have recorded growth in output, with the exception of the Construction, and Mining and Quarrying industries. Growth during 2022 was led by Hotels and Restaurants, up 48.9 per cent; Other Services, up 11.1 per cent; Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, up nine per cent; and Transport, Storage and Communication, up six per cent,” Dr. Henry informed.

He was speaking during the PIOJ’s quarterly media briefing at the Institute’s head office in New Kingston, on Tuesday (February 21).

Meanwhile, the economy is estimated to have grown by 3.4 per cent for the October to December 2022 quarter.

Dr. Henry told journalists that this largely reflected, among other factors, the positive impact of a strengthening of economic activities, as some industries showed signs of returning to and surpassing their pre-COVID-19 output levels, and increased external demand, supported by growth in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners.

The Goods-Producing Industry rose by an estimated 4.3 per cent, due to improved performances in three of the four sub-industries – Mining and Quarrying, up 115.9 per cent; Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, up five per cent; and Manufacturing, up 3.7 per cent.

Dr. Henry noted, however, that the fourth subindustry, Construction, declined by 4.7 per cent.

He said the Services Industry grew by an estimated three per cent, reflecting higher real value-added for all industries, except Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery (WRTRIM).

The Director General informed that Hotels and Restaurants led the way with an estimated 24.3 per cent, followed by Transport, Storage and Communication with 3.8 per cent.

Electricity and Water Supply, up 1.7 per cent, and Finance and Insurance Services, up one per cent, were the other industries recording growth.

The WRTRIM industry is estimated to have declined by 1.3 per cent.

Dr. Henry said the economy’s short-term prospects remain generally positive, based on several factors.

These include relative stability in the macroeconomy, evidenced by a tempering of the inflation out-turn; and strengthened demand, stemming from increased economic activities, as most industries are forecast to grow.

Coupled with these, the Director General pointed out, is continued recovery in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners, which “augurs well for increased external demand, for example, for tourism services”.

For the January-March 2023 quarter, the economy is expected to grow within the range of three to five per cent.

This out-turn, according to Dr. Henry, will be led by strong performances for the Hotels and Restaurants, and Mining and Quarrying industries.

He advised that the economy is projected to grow within the four to six per cent range for fiscal year 2022/23.

“It is important to note that should the economy perform as expected for the remainder of 2022/23, Jamaica’s GDP would have fully recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels in this fiscal year, earlier than the initially projected date of 2023/24,” Dr. Henry noted.

He added that for fiscal year 2023/24, the economy is projected to grow in the range of one to three per cent.

This, Dr. Henry indicated, would largely reflect a “faster than expected” pace of recovery in the previous fiscal year, “leading to an earlier than anticipated normalisation of output and a return to the long-term trend of growth”.