Met Service Urges Jamaicans to Be Prepared for Active Hurricane Season

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season officially begins on June 1, and forecasters are suggesting that it will be a very active one.

As a result, Head of the Weather Branch at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service), Rohan Brown, is urging Jamaicans to be prepared.

Speaking at a disaster preparedness town hall meeting, held at the Errol Flynn Marina, Port Antonio, Portland, on May 9, Mr. Brown informed that last year was the fourth most active hurricane season on record.

He noted that at the end of the season last year in November, there was an area of low pressure that moved across Jamaica, called Potential Tropical Cyclone 22.

“That created a little damage, it produced heavy prolonged rainfall, gusty winds and it affected 10 of 14 parishes, especially southwestern, central and eastern parishes. When we measured the rainfall, there were 30 stations that were used in the analysis and all 30 stations in those two and a half days exceeded their monthly rainfall,” Mr. Brown stated.

“We had rockslides, fallen trees, downed powerlines, and communities were inundated. Now, if that little system that was not a tropical storm or hurricane, but just an area of low pressure that moved across Jamaica and created such damage, can you imagine if it was a tropical storm or a hurricane? We need to be prepared,” he emphasised.

Mr. Brown pointed out that right across the world, meteorologists and the climate scientists are saying that this year is going to be an active year.

“And the reasons why they’re saying that is we’re currently in an El Niño condition right now, and that condition is going to become neutral in the next couple of weeks, and when you reach the peak of the hurricane season, you’re going to have something that is called La Niña,” he said.

“That system weakens the wind shear and, therefore, you have more energy, more convective activity, and storms are easier to form in that sort of condition. That is something we are concerned about,” he added.

Mr. Brown noted that another area of concern is the above-normal sea surface temperatures, pointing out that so far for April, the sea temperatures have been high.

“So, if they are above normal for April, can you imagine June, July and August? That is cause for concern, and not only that, to about 30 feet below the sea level that also is warming, and that combination provides the energy or the fuel for the quick development of weather systems [or] rapid intensification,” he explained.

He cited Hurricane Otis as an example, which was a compact but very powerful tropical cyclone that made a devastating landfall in October 2023 near Acapulco, in Mexico.

Initially forecast to stay offshore and to only be a weak tropical storm at peak intensity, Otis instead underwent explosive intensification to reach peak winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) and weakened only slightly before making landfall as a powerful Category 5 hurricane.

Mr. Brown noted the four stages for the development of a tropical cyclone, namely tropical disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm, and then full-fledged hurricane.

“This isn’t happening anymore because of the extreme heat. You have rapid intensification and over 24 hours it can go from a category one hurricane to a category five,” he said.

Mr. Brown pointed out that while the Met Service uses the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate prediction models, the entity has not released its forecast for the 2024 hurricane season.

“But other entities like the Colorado State University and the Penn State University are expecting 23 named storms. In a normal season you should have 14. So, therefore, all the indicators are pointing to an active hurricane season. But the most important number is one, because all it takes is the passage of one system near Jamaica or over Jamaica to create significant damage, loss of livelihoods and, more importantly, the loss of life,” he said.

“So, my message is be prepared; whether you are Government, whether you’re a municipal corporation, whether you’re private sector, whether in your house, in your family, be prepared,” Mr. Brown emphasised.

The Atlantic Hurricane season is expected to conclude on November 30, 2024.