BOJ Provides Growth Outlook
By: , November 20, 2022
Photo: JIS File
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor, Richard Byles.The Full Story
The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) says the economy is still projected to grow in the range of 2.5 to 4.5 per cent for fiscal year 2022/23.
This, following an 8.2 per cent outturn recorded in 2021/22, Governor, Richard Byles, has said.
Speaking during the BOJ’s semi-virtual quarterly media briefing on Friday (November 18), Mr. Byles said Jamaica’s economy continues to perform “creditably”.
“There are signs that the economy has continued to expand for the September 2022 quarter, and the December 2022 quarter, to date,” Mr. Byles indicated.
He also cited among the positive indicators, the 6.6 per cent unemployment rate recorded for July 2022, noting that this was 1.9 percentage points lower than the outturn for the corresponding period last year.
Mr. Byles said the Bank expects that growth will continue to be driven by the services industry, particularly tourism, “which has been recovering at a rapid pace.”
“There has also been some buoyancy in the agricultural sector, which is expected to continue as the tourism sector recovers and weather conditions improve,” he added.
The Governor said the growth forecast also reflects the recent resumption of production at the JAMALCO alumina plant in Halse Hall, Clarendon, which was closed for an extended period after being ravaged by fire in August 2021.
Meanwhile, Mr. Byles said growth for fiscal year 2023/24 is projected to moderate further.
This, he explained as income growth among Jamaica’s main trading partners normalises to pre-COVID rates.
The Governor cautioned, however, that risks to the forecast are skewed to the downside.
“Growth in tourist arrivals and related activities could be adversely affected by headwinds to global growth. These headwinds include a deepening of geopolitical tensions and the continuation of synchronised tightening of financial conditions among Jamaica’s main trading partners,” he told journalists.
Additionally, Mr. Byles said there is risk that domestic consumer spending could be adversely affected by the high, albeit falling, domestic inflation.