BOJ Projects GDP Growth of Up to 3% for 2025-26

The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is projecting that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Jamaica will recover in the range of 1.0 to 3.0 per cent for the financial year 2025-26, largely due to the performance in agriculture, mining, and tourism sectors.

This was noted by Governor Richard Byles during a recent press conference at the Bank’s headquarters in downtown Kingston.

“Subsequently, growth is forecast to normalise in the range of 1.0 to 2.0 per cent. Employment levels remain high, even as anecdotal data suggest that wage pressures are moderate,” he said.

Meanwhile, he informed that the BOJ estimates that the domestic economy grew in the range of 1.0 to 2.0 per cent for the June 2025 quarter, resulting from expansion in most industries.

Mr. Byles said that economic activity is projected to continue to expand in the September 2025 quarter.

At the same time, the Governor reported that Jamaica’s balance of payments remains in surplus, reflecting continued growth in remittance inflows and tourism arrivals, despite policy changes in the international environment.

“In this context, at 12th August, Jamaica’s gross international reserves stood at the high and healthy level of US$6.2 billion, or 148 per cent of the measure considered adequate,” Mr. Byles stated.

Mr. Byles said, as reported by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), inflation at July 2025 was 3.3 per cent and core inflation, which excludes the prices of agricultural products and fuel from the Consumer Price Index, was 4.3 per cent, which was below the rate recorded at July last year.

Governor Byles said the economic outlook remained clouded by uncertainties related to the policies of the United States (US), as that country continues to reset relationships with its trading partners and tighten its immigration policies.

“These developments may slow the pace of economic activity and could cause inflationary pressures in the US, which could adversely affect the Jamaican economy,” he said.