Economy to Stablise in January-March 2025 Quarter – PIOJ

The overall performance of the economy is projected to stabilise during the January-March 2025 quarter, with a flat performance projected, says Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, Dr. Wayne Henry.

He was addressing the PIOJ’s recent briefing for the July to September 2024 quarter.

Economic activity contracted by an estimated 2.8 per cent during the review quarter during the adverse impact of Hurricane Beryl and other hydrological events.

The Goods Producing and Services industries declined by 6.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively, compared with the corresponding period in 2023.

In the Goods Producing industry, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing were estimated to have contracted by 13.5 per cent, reflecting the adverse impact of weather conditions, Dr. Henry said.

He pointed out that the industry’s performance was reflected in declines recorded for Other Agricultural Crops, which contracted by 12.9 per cent.

Lower production was recorded for eight of the nine crop groups and a lower output was recorded for traditional export crops, which decreased by 15 per cent.

However, animal farming was estimated to have increased by 1.6 per cent, due to higher broiler meat production, up 3.4 per cent.

Dr. Henry indicated that real value added for Mining & Quarrying contracted by 15.2 per cent, reflecting declines in the Bauxite & Alumina and Quarrying sub-industries.

Alumina production declined by 12.6 per cent, due to a reduction in the alumina capacity utilisation rate, while crude bauxite production fell by 33.1 per cent, reflecting lower demand from overseas purchasers.

In addition, the Manufacturing Industry contracted by an estimated two per cent, due to lower output in the Food, Beverages & Tobacco and the Other Manufacturing sub-industries.

Dr. Henry shared that the construction industry was estimated to have contracted by 2.8 per cent, reflecting an estimated contraction in both the Building Construction, and Other Construction components of the industry.

Meanwhile, in the Services industry, there was a reduction in all industries, except for the Finance & Insurance industry, which grew by one per cent, and Producers of Government Services, which remained flat.

The Electricity & Water Supply industry recorded a 5.8 per cent downturn, reflecting lower electricity and water consumption, due to damage to the transmission and distribution assets of the utility providers.

Real Value Added for Transport, Storage & Communication was 2.8 per cent lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2023.

Turning to Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (WRTRIM), Dr. Henry said the industry was estimated to have contracted by 1.4 per cent.

“This was due to an estimated real decline of 4.6 per cent in the level of real gross sales, and a downturn in the related Agriculture, Construction and Manufacturing industries as well as a weakening in business confidence, down 8.6 per cent,” Dr. Henry said.

Real value added in the Finance & Insurance Services industry grew by one per cent.

Dr. Henry said the Hotels & Restaurants industry contracted by 2.1 per cent and preliminary data indicate that foreign national arrivals for July to September was 633,993 visitors, representing a decrease of 3.1 per cent.