PIOJ’S Growth Outlook for June 2024 Quarter Generally Positive

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) says growth prospects for the economy during the April to June 2024 quarter are generally positive.

In this regard, the Institute is projecting an out-turn within the range of 1.5 to 2.5 per cent for the period, relative to April to June 2023.

Speaking during the PIOJ’s quarterly briefing on Tuesday (May 28), Senior Director in the Institute’s Economic Planning and Research Division, James Stewart, said this projection is based on the continued growth momentum in most industries.

“Specifically, growth during this period is expected to be driven by continued strengthening of the mining and quarrying industry due to higher capacity utilisation at alumina refineries, increased domestic demand, due to relatively high levels of employment, and continued strengthening in the global economy, which augurs well for external demand for Jamaica’s goods and services,” he said.

Mr. Stewart disclosed that preliminary data for the June 2024 quarter indicate some positive movements in support of the projection.

For the mining and quarrying industry, he said data for April 2024 indicate that heavier weighted alumina production increased by 3.7 per cent, while crude bauxite output decreased by 43.7 per cent.

Additionally, preliminary data on airport arrivals for April 2024 indicate a four percentage points decline.

This, the Senior Director explained, was due to the Easter holiday being celebrated at the end of March 2024 as against April in 2023.

“However, it is anticipated that stopover visitor arrivals data for the full quarter will yield a positive out-turn,” Mr. Stewart said.

Meanwhile, the PIOJ advised that the growth projection for fiscal year 2024/25 is within the range of one to three per cent, with all industries forecasted to expand.

The downside risks to these projections include increased factory downtime associated with aged production plants, weather-related shocks, and lower-than-anticipated external demand for Jamaican goods and services as a result of slower-than-expected growth in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners.