PIOJ Reports Estimated 1.9 Per Cent Growth for December 2023 Quarter

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting that the economy grew by an estimated 1.9 per cent during the October to December 2023 quarter, compared with the corresponding period in 2022.

Speaking during the PIOJ’s quarterly briefing on Wednesday (February 21), Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, said the out-turn for the review quarter largely reflected the impact of higher levels of employment, increased productive capacity in the mining and quarrying industry and an increase in consumer confidence associated with the perceived favourable prospects for job opportunities.

Regarding real sector developments, the Goods Producing Industry grew by an estimated 2.3 per cent, driven by improved performances in three of the four industries – Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Mining and Quarrying; and Construction.

Dr. Henry informed that the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector grew by 2.4 per cent, due to an increase in hectares reaped and higher output per hectare for five of nine domestic crop groups.

“The out-turn was in response to higher demand, particularly from the Hotels and Restaurants industry. The [Agriculture] Industry’s performance was driven by higher output in all sub-components, with the exception of animal farming,” he said.

Dr. Henry noted that further growth within the industry was constrained by heavy rains between November 16 and 18, 2023, which resulted in flooding, particularly in eastern parishes such as St. Thomas, St. Mary and St. Catherine, which recorded reduced outputs.

Real value added for the Mining and Quarrying Industry increased by an estimated 23.6 per cent, reflecting an expansion in alumina production as crude bauxite output declined.

“Alumina production grew by 32.9 per cent due to increased capacity utilisation at the Jamalco refinery. The alumina capacity utilisation rate increased to 39 per cent, up 9.6 percentage points, compared with the corresponding quarter of 2022. Crude bauxite production fell by 27 per cent. Consequently, the bauxite capacity utilisation rate decreased to 32.7 per cent, down 12.1 percentage points,” the Director General detailed.

Regarding Construction, Dr. Henry said real value added was estimated to have expanded by 1.4 per cent, primarily due to increased supplies of cement and asphalt, as well as higher sales from firms operating within the sector.

He explained that further growth was stymied by a 27.8 per cent decline in housing starts by the National Housing Trust (NHT) as well as a 2.4 percentage points decrease in the value of mortgages distributed by the entity.

The Director General added that the Manufacturing Industry contracted by 0.3 per cent, stemming from lower outputs in the sub-industries – Food, Beverages & Tobacco, and Other Manufacturing.

“The decline in the Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub-industry reflected lower production for rum and alcohol, down 32.1 per cent; sugar, down 59.3 per cent; edible oils, down 5.8 per cent; dairy products, down 10.9 per cent, and poultry meat, down 2.2 per cent. Further declines were tempered by increases recorded for edible fats, up 20.8 per cent; molasses, up 14.6 per cent; and carbonated beverages, up 21.5 per cent,” Dr. Henry stated.