PIOJ Projecting Two Percent Growth in Current Quarter

KINGSTON — Director of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), Dr. Gladstone Hutchinson, is projecting a one to two per cent growth in the Jamaican economy for the current April to June quarter.

According to Dr. Hutchinson, the PIOJ is also forecasting a similar one to two per cent improvement in the economy for both the 2011 calendar year and the 2011/2012 fiscal year.

He was speaking at the PIOJ’s quarterly press briefing, at its New Kingston office, on Friday (May 20).

Dr. Hutchinson noted that a 1.5 per cent growth was recorded for January to March of 2011. He said this positive outturn was a result of continued strong performances in mining and quarrying, tourism and agriculture and a return to positive outputs for other industries.

He pointed out that for the quarter, agriculture, forestry and fisheries increased by 13.5 per cent. The main growth areas included agricultural crops, which were up 22.2 per cent; fishing, up 8.1 per cent and post harvest activities, up 59.2 per cent.

“This is mainly due to replanting efforts by farmers, following Tropical Storm Nicole and favourable weather conditions,” he remarked. However, he noted that traditional export crops and animal farming declined by 0.2 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively.

Dr. Hutchinson said that Mining and Quarrying grew by 38.8 per cent, with bauxite production increasing by 36.4 per cent. This was reflected in a 44.3 per cent increase in alumina production and a 29.2 per cent growth in crude bauxite. These increases were attributed to a number of factors, including higher industrial production, globally, reopening of the Windalco Ewarton Plant in June 2010 and higher bauxite production by the Noranda Bauxite Company.

Turning to tourism, he said that total arrivals increased by 5.3 per cent. He also noted that real value added from hotels and restaurants grew by 3.7 per cent.

Inflation for the review quarter was 0.5 per cent, with the main contributors being transport, up 2.2 per cent, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, up by 6.1 per cent.

“Prices were pushed mainly by higher international crude oil prices, which resulted in increased electricity and water rates, as well as transportation costs,” he said.

In the meantime, the PIOJ head observed that for the fiscal year 2010 to 2011, GDP is estimated to have declined by 0.6 per cent. The goods producing industry increased by 0.9 per cent, while the services industry contracted by 1.4 per cent.

By ATHALIAH REYNOLDS, JIS Reporter