We Could Be On Our Way Back – David Wan

Jamaica Employers’ Federation (JEF) President, David Wan, is optimistic about the prospects of an economic rebound this year, telling JIS News that several promising indicators emerging within recent months suggest that “we could be on our way back”.

He notes that tourist arrivals have been increasing and cement production “is above the level it was in 2019”.

Preliminary figures from the Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) show that the country welcomed 1,297,094 visitors, comprising 847,823 stopover arrivals and 449,271 cruise passengers, and generated approximately US$1.3 billion in earnings in 2020.

“We also see people fixing up or building their houses and developers are building new schemes and I see things like the sale of electricity to businesses [being] almost back to the level it was in 2019,” the JEF President further points out.

Mr. Wan’s outlook is largely consistent with that of Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor, Richard Byles, who is projecting approximately three per cent growth starting in fiscal 2021-22, with the possibility of an out-turn as high as eight per cent “if there’s strong recovery in tourism”.

He says that the economy is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels before, at least, fiscal year 2022-23.

Mr. Wan tells JIS News that during the first part of 2020, prior to the onset of COVID-19 in Jamaica “I think things were looking extremely good for the country”, both financially and having achieved a record low 7.2 per cent unemployment rate, among other notable outcomes.

He points out, however, that the pandemic’s outbreak “really upset the whole economic picture for Jamaica, as with many other countries”, noting that critical indicators suggested “things had declined significantly”.

Mr. Wan says, however, that key fiscal safeguards, predating COVID-19, which were initiated by the Government, among other pivotal interventions, provided crucial buffers that have been largely cushioning Jamaica against the debilitating impact of the pandemic.

“I think that since the onset of COVID-19 locally, in March, until now, and in comparing our fortunes with information I’ve been hearing about in many of the other countries around the world, I would think Jamaica has done quite well in managing and living with the virus… and the economy is showing signs of potentially rebounding,” he adds, while lauding the Government for doing a “very commendable job”, so far.

The JEF President cautions, however, that the country has “a little way to go” in the recovery efforts “before we get back to where we were in 2019”.

Against this background, he suggests that the Government prioritise several areas that he believes can potentially serve to further bolster the efforts.

Among these is consideration to allocating another stimulus provision, particularly for small and medium businesses, including hotels.

“I think the economy may go through a rough patch… in light of the resurgence of COVID-19, particularly in the United States. So I think additional stimulus assistance from the Government will be needed,” he contends.

Additionally, Mr. Wan says the Administration must remain vigilant and up to date on developments regarding the new COVID-19 variant and be prepared to respond, should there be an outbreak/resurgence precipitated by the strain.

Further, that the Government should seek to embark on the timely execution of a vaccination programme, once vaccine procurement has commenced.

Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) President, Lloyd Distant Jr., tells JIS News that COVID-19 has served to create new opportunities, which several businesses have sought to exploit.

Noting that 2020 was a “mixed” year for many stakeholders, Mr. Distant tells JIS News that the pandemic prompted a number of business leaders to reflect on their operations “in terms of how diversified their businesses are and how resilient they could and would be to shocks like COVID-19”.

He says while the pandemic upstaged out-turns at the start of the year, the back end of 2020 saw several enterprises posting “extremely great results”.

“A number of stakeholders in the financial sector, large conglomerates and businesses listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange… and manufacturing entities, medium size and large, in particular, were posting good out-turns,” the JCC President notes.

This, he tells JIS News, resulted from businesses pivoting early during the COVID-19 onset to take advantage of potential prospects.

“A number of entities began to diversify, with stronger focus on protecting employees as well as their revenue streams,” Mr. Distant explains, noting that focus was placed on opportunities within CARICOM and North America.

“So while the last business confidence indices results indicate continuing trepidation about the effects of the pandemic, I would say there is hope for the future as we see a number of businesses continuing to take the opportunity to invest. So the investment stream has not slowed down,” he adds.

Going forward, Mr. Distant cites the need for micro, small and medium-size enterprises (MSMEs) to be facilitated with greater opportunities for retooling “whilst bringing in more businesses from the grey (informal) economy and formalising their operations”.

“If we can formalise more informal businesses and give them the opportunity to access financing and take the opportunity to reset how we go about business in Jamaica, then we can certainly stay ahead of the curve, in terms of our opportunities and economic prospects,” he adds.

Mr. Distant says the JCC and wider business community “anticipate that the results of the National Consensus on Crime will, over time, reap the results that we are all looking for”.

Business analyst, Warren McDonald, for his part, tells JIS News that the sound fiscal policies and measures instituted by the Government within recent years have facilitated a structured and stable economy.

“I think the economic fallout from COVID-19 would have been much greater, had we not stabilised our economy… and I think we often overlook that. But I think that is a positive because, despite the negative fallout, it would have been much worse,” he tells JIS News.

Mr. McDonald says the Administration should prioritise job creation as well as curbing crime and curtailing COVID-19, in order to “get things going”.